Aurora Forecast for 9th-10th August 2024

Good afternoon everyone! Welcome to my first official Aurora Forecast. I am expecting some activity tonight, Friday evening, 9th of August all night through to Saturday morning, 10th August, 2024. 

**This was frantically written at 4pm, 9th of August, 2024**

Astronomical twilight 6.41pm Friday, Sunset 5.45pm Friday
21% moon, waxing crescent, moonset 10.12pm Friday
Nautical twilight 6.08am Saturday, Sunrise 7.04am Saturday

AURORA ACTIVITY

Glendale are reporting around 4am, Saturday for a significant CME to arrive. (M4.55)
There is another CME reported to be arriving this evening, 6.15pm Friday (M5.02) 

The Aurora Alerts App and Space Weather Live App are both showing elevated activity from 8pm Friday which then signifcantly increases at around 2am Saturday into the morning

LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS

In Margaret River we defintely have some wintery weather and not a clear night unfortunately but I think there's still a good chance for some gaps in the clouds. 

Weather Live is reporting showers till about 6pm, then cloudy. Some bursts of showers around 11pm Friday and then again around 1-2am Saturday, with the skies clearing up around 6am. 

Windy is showing the same but with more detail, expecting light showers that pass in a south east direction. Windy also shows passing low clouds throughout the night, it seems most thick around 11pm and thinning out around 2am onwards, but not clearing at 6am (as Weather Live has predicted) so we'll see. 

There is some wind about, but it is northwesterly so not as cold when it's coming up from the south thankfully! But it will be a little strong, blowing consistently 30km/hr all night, gusting to 45km-50km/hour (according to Windy). I would recommend a strong, sturdy tripod and even using some weights to keep it secure.

A great resource is BOM's Satellite Viewer, real time cloud imagery. I'll leave all the links below and over the coming weeks I'll expand on how to make sense of all of this and provide more details on locations. 

MY PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT

So my predicition, is that it's going to be a very long night, but I know from the other night that patience does pay off. If you can't stay up all night but really want to see the aurora, I would head to bed early and around or before 2am check back here (or the aurora and weather apps) to see the current conditions as I think the major activity will be 2am onwards.

LOCATION & ETIQUETTE

As always, if you want to see an aurora, make sure you are in a south facing location. Regate is a really great place, but there are many other locations which I'll be sharing over the next few weeks and months.

Please turn off your cars headlights as soon as you can when you arrive at these locations and keep your torches down. If you are using a smart phone to photograph, please stay behind or move away from any photographers using traditional cameras. It won't make a difference to you, but to us, the light of your screen stops us from taking a usable photo. Thank you to those of you who already do this! All of us photographers, both professional and amateur appreciate it. 

OTHER DETAILS & UPCOMING WORKSHOPS

Please note, all times and dates are in Australian Western Standard Time and weather information is specific to the Margaret River region. To bring you these forecasts, I use information that I source about local weather and space weather and combine with my knowledge of the local area. But despite my best efforts, weather is unpredictable and luck certainly plays a part. There's always a chance that nothing happens.

Over the coming weeks, I will be sharing more tips to see and photograph the aurora in the Margaret River region. My Astrophotography Workshops (including Aurora Australis prep) will be announced soon! I'm looking for some clearer weather and just finalising the details. Small groups and 1:1 will be available.